People's bank of China Zhang Peng/Getty Images

Печальная годовщина Азии

ЭКС-АН-ПРОВАНС – В этом месяце отмечается 20-летие Азиатского финансового кризиса – или, точнее, события, вызвавшего кризис: девальвации таиландского бата. Хотя подобные юбилеи, безусловно, не повод для празднования, они, по крайней мере, дают возможность оглянуться назад и проанализировать, что изменилось, и что не менее важно, что осталось без изменений.

На тот момент причины кризиса были оспорены, и они продолжают оспариваться по сей день. Западные наблюдатели возлагали вину на отсутствие прозрачности в Азиатских странах и на чрезмерно тесные отношения между фирмами и правительствами – то, что они описывали как “клановый капитализм”. Со своей стороны, Азиатские комментаторы обвиняли хедж-фонды в дестабилизации региональных финансовых рынков, а Международный валютный фонд за назначение курса лечения, который чуть не убил пациента.

Обе точки зрения в определенной степени обоснованы. Опубликованный баланс Банка Таиланда слишком преувеличил имеющиеся у него валютные резервы – едва ли яркий пример финансовой прозрачности. Иностранные спекулянты активно выступали против бата, а короткие продавцы включали не только хедж-фонды, но и инвестиционные банки, включая тот, который одновременно консультировал Тайское правительство по защите своей валюты. И, давая рекомендации Азиатским странам о том, как справиться с кризисом, МВФ допустил ошибку – следует отметить, не в последний раз, – в сторону слишком жесткой бюджетной экономии.

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