People's bank of China Zhang Peng/Getty Images

Il triste anniversario dell’Asia

AIX EN PROVENCE – Questo mese si celebra l’anniversario della crisi finanziaria asiatica o più precisamente, dell’evento che provocò la crisi: la svalutazione del baht thailandese. Se da un lato questi anniversari non sono motivo di festeggiamento, dall’altro offrono l’opportunità di guardare al passato e analizzare ciò che è cambiato e, cosa ugualmente importante, ciò che non è cambiato.

Ci sono state diverse contrapposizioni sulle cause della crisi e continuano ad esserci ancora oggi. Gli osservatori occidentali colpevolizzano infatti da sempre i paesi asiatici per la mancanza di trasparenza e per una relazione troppo stretta tra aziende e governi, ovvero ciò che descrivono come “capitalismo clientelare”. Dall’altro lato gli analisti asiatici danno la responsabilità ai fondi speculativi per aver destabilizzato i mercati finanziari della regione e al Fondo Monetario Internazionale per aver prescritto un trattamento che ha quasi ucciso il paziente.

Ci sono degli elementi validi in entrambi i punti di vista. Il bilancio pubblicato dalla Banca della Thailandia conteneva infatti un ammontare esagerato di riserve in valuta estera (non proprio un esempio di trasparenza finanziaria). Inoltre, gli speculatori finanziari hanno poi scommesso contro il baht, mentre i venditori allo scoperto hanno incluso non solo i fondi speculativi, ma anche le banche per gli investimenti compresa la banca che forniva consulenza al governo thailandese su come difendere la propria valuta. D’altra parte, il Fondo Monetario Internazionale, nel corso della sua consulenza ai paesi asiatici sulla gestione della crisi, ha indicato erroneamente ai governi (come è poi successo altre volte) di perseguire un’eccessiva austerità fiscale.

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