阿富汗战争后的亚洲

发自东京——美国与亚洲之间偶尔纠结的关系将在今年7月迎来两个里程碑。首先,随着奥巴马总统宣布3万名驻阿富汗美军将在明年夏天以前陆续撤出,持续近十年之久的阿富汗战争——也是美国历史上历时最长的一场战争——终于迎来了落幕的时刻。其次,亨利·基辛格秘密访华40周年纪念也即将到来,当年基辛格的访问成为了冷战的一个转折点,也是中国迈向现代化的第一步——同时也让整个亚洲,尤其是是日本,大为震惊。

至少对某些亚洲人来说,美国从阿富汗撤军的情形会令他们回想起另一件更为痛苦的往事:1975年4月,美国从西贡仓促逃离。当时美国国民已经厌倦了战事,渴望重投孤立主义以寻找一丝安慰,因此美国在越南的溃败似乎意味着其将大规模收缩部署在亚洲的军队规模。如今孤立主义在美国国内再次抬头,阿富汗的稳定仍然堪忧,而在缺乏发亚洲共识或制度框架的情况下,中国却正如日东升,这一切都让亚洲坐立不安。

事实上败走西贡后美国确实转向保守,而在1989年苏联撤出阿富汗后,美国人对这个国家的漠视则导致阿国内部陷入混乱,几乎让基地组织夺取了整个政权。可见许多亚洲领导人对美国在撤军后继续对阿富汗承担什么样的责任表示怀疑就不足为奇了。而同样重要的是,许多亚洲人都在争论:在美国人收缩其军事存在后的亚洲是否还能重新实现战略均衡。

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