阿富汗战争后的亚洲

发自东京——美国与亚洲之间偶尔纠结的关系将在今年7月迎来两个里程碑。首先,随着奥巴马总统宣布3万名驻阿富汗美军将在明年夏天以前陆续撤出,持续近十年之久的阿富汗战争——也是美国历史上历时最长的一场战争——终于迎来了落幕的时刻。其次,亨利·基辛格秘密访华40周年纪念也即将到来,当年基辛格的访问成为了冷战的一个转折点,也是中国迈向现代化的第一步——同时也让整个亚洲,尤其是是日本,大为震惊。

至少对某些亚洲人来说,美国从阿富汗撤军的情形会令他们回想起另一件更为痛苦的往事:1975年4月,美国从西贡仓促逃离。当时美国国民已经厌倦了战事,渴望重投孤立主义以寻找一丝安慰,因此美国在越南的溃败似乎意味着其将大规模收缩部署在亚洲的军队规模。如今孤立主义在美国国内再次抬头,阿富汗的稳定仍然堪忧,而在缺乏发亚洲共识或制度框架的情况下,中国却正如日东升,这一切都让亚洲坐立不安。

事实上败走西贡后美国确实转向保守,而在1989年苏联撤出阿富汗后,美国人对这个国家的漠视则导致阿国内部陷入混乱,几乎让基地组织夺取了整个政权。可见许多亚洲领导人对美国在撤军后继续对阿富汗承担什么样的责任表示怀疑就不足为奇了。而同样重要的是,许多亚洲人都在争论:在美国人收缩其军事存在后的亚洲是否还能重新实现战略均衡。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/pR3xcy4/zh;
  1. Television sets showing a news report on Xi Jinping's speech Anthony Wallace/Getty Images

    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

    China’s success in the next five years will depend largely on how well the government manages the tensions underlying its complex agenda. In particular, China’s leaders will need to balance a muscular Communist Party, setting standards and protecting the public interest, with an empowered market, driving the economy into the future.

  2. United States Supreme Court Hisham Ibrahim/Getty Images

    The Sovereignty that Really Matters

    The preference of some countries to isolate themselves within their borders is anachronistic and self-defeating, but it would be a serious mistake for others, fearing contagion, to respond by imposing strict isolation. Even in states that have succumbed to reductionist discourses, much of the population has not.

  3.  The price of Euro and US dollars Daniel Leal Olivas/Getty Images

    Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment

    When the Bretton Woods Agreement was hashed out in 1944, it was agreed that countries with current-account deficits should be able to limit temporarily purchases of goods from countries running surpluses. In the ensuing 73 years, the so-called "scarce-currency clause" has been largely forgotten; but it may be time to bring it back.

  4. Leaders of the Russian Revolution in Red Square Keystone France/Getty Images

    Trump’s Republican Collaborators

    Republican leaders have a choice: they can either continue to collaborate with President Donald Trump, thereby courting disaster, or they can renounce him, finally putting their country’s democracy ahead of loyalty to their party tribe. They are hardly the first politicians to face such a decision.

  5. Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron John Thys/Getty Images

    How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

    With talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU stalled, negotiators should shift to the temporary “transition” Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested last month. Above all, the negotiators should focus immediately on the British budget contributions that will be required to make an orderly transition possible.

  6. Ksenia Sobchak Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    Is Vladimir Putin Losing His Grip?

    In recent decades, as President Vladimir Putin has entrenched his authority, Russia has seemed to be moving backward socially and economically. But while the Kremlin knows that it must reverse this trajectory, genuine reform would be incompatible with the kleptocratic character of Putin’s regime.

  7. Right-wing parties hold conference Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

    Rage Against the Elites

    • With the advantage of hindsight, four recent books bring to bear diverse perspectives on the West’s current populist moment. 
    • Taken together, they help us to understand what that moment is and how it arrived, while reminding us that history is contingent, not inevitable


    Global Bookmark

    Distinguished thinkers review the world’s most important new books on politics, economics, and international affairs.

  8. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Bill Clark/Getty Images

    Don’t Bank on Bankruptcy for Banks

    As a part of their efforts to roll back the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, congressional Republicans have approved a measure that would have courts, rather than regulators, oversee megabank bankruptcies. It is now up to the Trump administration to decide if it wants to set the stage for a repeat of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.