Le jour sans fin de l'économie mondiale

NEW DELHI – Dans le film « Un Jour sans Fin », un présentateur météo interprété par Bill Murray se réveille tous les matins à 6h00 et revit la même journée. La même impression de déjà-vu a gagné les prévisions économiques depuis le début de la crise économique mondiale il y a bientôt cinq ans. Pourtant les décideurs restent convaincus que le modèle économique de croissance dominant durant les années d'avant la crise reste encore leur meilleur repère, au moins dans un avenir proche.

Mais la mise à jour de milieu d'exercice du World Economic Outlook du Fonds Monétaire International raconte la même histoire chaque année depuis 2011 : « Zut ! L'économie mondiale n'a pas atteint les résultats attendus. » Les rapports continuent à tenir pour responsables des facteurs imprévus : le séisme Tōhoku et le tsunami au Japon, l'incertitude quant au rendement de la politique monétaire expansionniste américaine, une revue à la hausse « unique » des primes de risque et les conditions météorologiques extrêmes aux États-Unis.  

En insistant sur la nature provisoire de ces facteurs, les rapports insistent sur le fait que, bien que la croissance de PIB mondial ait augmenté de près de à 3% au premier semestre, elle devrait reprendre au second semestre. Grâce à ce nouvel élan, la croissance devrait enfin atteindre l'an prochain le taux tant attendu de 4%. Si cela ne devait pas se produire, le FMI publie une autre interprétation des mêmes arguments.

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