全球经济的欧洲土拨鼠日

新德里—在电影《土拨鼠日》(Groundhog Day)中,比尔·穆雷(Bill Murray)扮演的电视天气预报员每天都会在早晨6点起来,过同一个日子。自五年前全球经济危机爆发以来,经济预测界也是如此。但决策者仍然自信地认为在危机前大行其道的经济增长模式仍是他们的最佳指南,至少在近期是如此。

以国际货币进组织(IMF)《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)的年中更新为例。自2011年以来,该报告一直在讲同一个故事:“哦!世界经济没有像我们预期的那样表现。”接着,报告将矛头指向了未预料到的因素——比如日本东北大地震和海啸、美国推出扩张性货币政策的不确定性、风险的“一次性”重新定价、美国天气恶劣,等等——以此为预测失准开脱。

《世界经济展望》强调这些因素的暂时性质,认定尽管世界GDP增长在上半年只有大约3%,但会在下半年加速。受新动力推动,增长最终会在明年达到久违的4%水平。如果事实并非如此,IMF搬出其他理由重复相同的主张。

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