Christine Lagarde IMF Photo/Stephen Jaffe

Das falsche Geständnis des IWF

PRINCETON – „Muss ich einen Kniefall machen?“, so die Frage der geschäftsführenden Direktorin des Internationalen Währungsfonds, Christine Lagarde, in einem Interview in der „Andrew Marr Show“ der BBC. Lagarde hatte sich für die IWF-Prognose der britischen Wirtschaft der letzten Zeit entschuldigt, die nach oben korrigiert werden musste und, was schwerer wiegt, für die seit längerem bestehende Kritik des IWF an den Sparmaßnahmen der Regierung des britischen Premierministers David Cameron. Lagarde zufolge, die den britischen Sparkurs inzwischen befürwortet, betrachtet der IWF die Aussichten für die britische Wirtschaft mit mehr Zuversicht, was somit die jüngste Erholung stimuliert.

Die Entschuldigung von Christine Lagarde war beispiellos, mutig und falsch. Indem sie ausgesprochen wurde, hat der IWF einen wirtschaftlichen Grundsatz beschädigt, der von Ökonomen mehrheitlich unterstützt wird: Die „Vertrauensfee“ gibt es nicht. Und indem sich der IWF dem Druck der Briten beugt, hat er seinen einzigen echten Pluspunkt unterminiert – seine Unabhängigkeit.

Der IWF ist der Verantwortung für weitaus schwerwiegendere Fehlprognosen aus dem Weg gegangen, einschließlich seines Versäumnisses jede große Krise der letzten Generation vorauszusehen, von Mexiko in den Jahren 1994-1995 bis zum Beinahe-Zusammenbruch des globalen Finanzsystems im Jahr 2008. Tatsächlich deuteten die Prognosen des IWF in den 6-12 Monaten vor jeder Krise auf „business as usual“ hin.

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