Christine Lagarde IMF Photo/Stephen Jaffe

IMF的伪善陈述

普林斯顿—“要不我跪下谢罪?”国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁拉加德如此问BBC的安德鲁·马尔(Andrew Marr)。拉加德在致歉,为IMF对英国近期经济表现预测失准,以及更严重的,为IMF对英国首相卡梅伦的财政紧缩措施的长期批评立场。如今,拉加德支持英国的紧缩措施,表示这提升了对英国经济前景的信心,从而刺激了目前的复苏。

拉加德的致歉是前所未有的,是充满勇气的,也是错误的。她的致歉表明IMF向一个学界压倒性支持的经济学原理低了头:信心“仙子”并不存在。而向英国的压力低头表明IMF丧失了它的真正财富——独立性。

到目前为止,IMF对其更严重的预测错误闪烁其词,包括未能预测到过去20年中的所有重大危机,从1994—1995年的墨西哥到2008年全球金融体系的几乎崩溃莫不如此。事实上,在每一次危机爆发前6—12个月,IMF的预测都表明一切如常。

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