La inminente década perdida

PRINCETON – A medida que acaba 2013, parece que la economía mundial seguirá estancada en una falta de dinamismo. Para aquellos que hacen previsiones sobre la recuperación global, las cifras sobre el PIB correspondientes al tercer trimestre no son alentadoras. Si bien los Estados Unidos van a la cabeza, pronto podrían perder algunos de sus buenos resultados, pues los inventarios acumulados empiezan a erosionar las ganancias. A pesar de los visos de esperanza, la eurozona y Japón están luchando por rebasar el umbral de 1% en el crecimiento económico anual. Además, las principales economías emergentes están ralentizando, de entre ellas Rusia, que prácticamente está paralizada.

No sorprende: una frase hecha en el debate de políticas económicas actual es “estancamiento secular”, la idea de que el ahorro excesivo daña crónicamente la demanda. El economista, Robert Gordon también ha argumentado que en el mundo es baja la producción de ideas productivas desde el punto de vista económico.

Pero antes de desesperarnos, hay cosas por hacer. Los programas de estímulo fiscal coordinado que salvaron al mundo del colapso económico en 2009 desaparecieron muy rápido, pues los gobiernos viraron su atención a políticas internas y prioridades. Como las opciones de políticas internas se han agotado, las perspectivas económicas se atenuaron. Un énfasis renovado en el estímulo debe aumentar mediante coordinación global en cuanto al momento ideal y contenido de las medidas de estímulo.

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