La prochaine décennie perdue

PRINCETON – Alors que 2013 touche à sa fin, il semble que l'économie mondiale restera coincé en petite vitesse. Pour ceux qui lisent dans les feuilles de thé de la reprise mondiale, les chiffres du PIB au troisième trimestre n'ont offert aucune consolation. Bien que les États-Unis restent en tête du peloton, certains de ses gains pourraient bientôt être perdus, car les stocks qui s'accumulent commencent à éroder les profits. Malgré certaines lueurs d'espoir, la zone euro et le Japon ont du mal à franchir le seuil du 1% de croissance économique annuelle. Et les grandes économies émergentes sont toutes en train de ralentir, avec la Russie pratiquement à l'arrêt.

Sans surprise, un slogan entendu à répétition dans les débats de politique économique est désormais celui de la « stagnation séculaire », l'idée que l'excès d'épargne limite la demande de manière chronique. L'économiste Robert Gordon a également fait valoir que le monde est à court d’idées économiquement productives.

Cependant, avant de nous désespérer, il y a du pain sur la planche. La relance budgétaire coordonnée qui a sauvé le monde de l'effondrement économique en 2009 a disparu trop vite, lorsque les gouvernements ont tourné leur attention vers les enjeux politiques et les priorités nationaux. Suite à l’épuisement des options politiques internes, les perspectives économiques se sont assombries. Une attention renouvelée à la relance doit être complétée par une coordination mondiale sur le calendrier et le contenu des mesures de relance.

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