Gli Spiragli Sempre Più Angusti della Zona Euro

PRINCETON – Le autorità portoghesi recentemente hanno fatto un’offerta preventiva ai creditori del loro paese: invece di riscattare le obbligazioni in scadenza a settembre 2013, il governo prolungherebbe i rimborsi fino ad ottobre 2015. L’accordo è stato concluso il 3 ottobre, ed è stata considerato test di mercato di successo per il Portogallo. Di recente, le autorità irlandesi hanno condotto operazioni simili, scambiando titoli di credito a breve termine con titoli a scadenza più lunga.

Tali operazioni evidenziano la strategia più ampia del guadagnare tempo. Entrambi i paesi cercano di costruire un profilo più lungo e gestibile per il rientro del loro debito privato, avendo cominciato a rendersi indipendenti dai fondi ufficiali di “salvataggio” forniti dalla “troika” (la Commissione Europea, la Banca Centrale Europea, il Fondo Monetario Internazionale). Gli investitori privati riconoscono la probabilità che i rimborsi vengano protratti, in quanto l’insistere sui termini vigenti potrebbe generare un ammontare insostenibile di interessi sui rimborsi, dalle conseguenze potenzialmente spiacevoli.

Il successo della strategia presuppone che, nel frattempo, la crescita economica rinforzi la capacità di ripagare il debito in futuro. Ci si aspetta che i tassi del debito sia dell’Irlanda che del Portogallo avranno un’ impennata di circa il 120% del PIL nel 2013, dopo di che se ne prevede il calo. Il picco nell’indice e la seguente traiettoria discendente dipendono in modo cruciale dal ritmo assunto dalla crescita economica.

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