El Armagedón puede esperar

CAMBRIDGE - ¿Hacia dónde se dirigen las monedas mundiales en 2011? Tras tres años de enormes oscilaciones de los tipos de cambio impulsadas por la crisis, es útil hacer un balance tanto de los valores de las monedas como del sistema cambiario en su conjunto. Mi impresión es que este año veremos una combinación de guerras de divisas, derrumbes de monedas y caos cambiario, pero que esto no significará el fin de la recuperación económica, y mucho menos el fin del mundo.

Comencemos por reconocer que el moderno sistema de tipos de cambio flotantes por lo general respondió bastante bien. Es verdad que, dados los complejos factores de riesgo y las preferencias idiosincrásicas de políticas, en los últimos tiempos ha sido particularmente difícil adivinar la lógica subyacente a las grandes oscilaciones de los tipos de cambio. Por ejemplo, aunque Estados Unidos estaba en el corazón de la crisis financiera, al principio el dólar se disparó.

Pero, incluso si las tasas de cambio operan de modos misteriosos, no se puede negar su efecto de amortiguación. La fuerte depreciación del euro después de la crisis ayudó a sostener las exportaciones alemanas, manteniendo así a flote la zona del euro .

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