Armageddon kann warten

CAMBRIDGE – Wohin werden sich die Währungen der Welt 2011 bewegen? Nach drei Jahren enormer krisenbedingter Wechselkursschwankungen kann es nicht schaden, eine Bestandsaufnahme der einzelnen Währungswerte und des Wechselkurssystems als ganzes zu machen. Ich vermute, wir werden eine Mischung aus Währungskrise, Währungskollaps und Währungschaos im nächsten Jahr sehen – aber das wird nicht das Ende der wirtschaftlichen Erholung sein, und schon gar nicht das Ende der Welt.

Beginnen wir damit, dass wir anerkennen, dass das moderne System der flexiblen Wechselkurse der Krise insgesamt in bemerkenswerter Weise standgehalten hat. Es stimmt zwar, dass es in letzter Zeit aufgrund der komplexen Risikofaktoren und der idiosynchratisch bedingten politischen Entscheidungen besonders schwierig war, die Logik hinter den großen Wechselkursschwankungen zu erkennen. Zum Beispiel ist der Dollar zunächst angestiegen, obwohl die Finanzkrise von den Vereinigten Staaten ausging.

Aber auch wenn sich die Wechselkurse mitunter mysteriös verhalten, ist ihre abfedernde Wirkung doch unbestreitbar. Die heftige Abwertung des Euro nach der Krise hat den deutschen Exporten geholfen und damit die Eurozone über Wasser gehalten.

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