Armageddon ještě počká

CAMBRIDGE – Kam mají v roce 2011 namířeno globální měny? Po třech letech obřích kurzovních výkyvů vlivem krize se hodí udělat si inventuru hodnot jednotlivých měn i soustavy směnných kurzů jako celku. Podle mého nejlepšího odhadu zaznamenáme v nadcházejícím roce směsici měnových válek, krachů měn a měnového chaosu – ale nebude to znamenat konec ekonomického oživení, natož konec světa.

Začněme uznáním, že moderní systém plovoucích směnných kurzů si doposud, nahlíženo celkově, vedl pozoruhodně dobře. Pravda, vzhledem ke spletitým rizikovým faktorům a osobitým orientacím politik, je v poslední době obzvlášť nesnadné vytušit logiku, z níž velké výkyvy směnných kurzů vycházejí. Přestože například Spojené státy byly v centru finanční krize, dolar nakonec vyletěl nahoru.

Ačkoliv ovšem směnné kurzy působí záhadnými způsoby, jejich tlumivý účinek je nepopiratelný. Prudká devalvace eura po krizi přispěla k zachování německých vývozů, čímž udržela eurozónu nad vodou.

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