大决战为时尚早

坎布里奇——

2011年全球货币形势将如何发展?由危机引发汇率剧烈波动已经维持了三年,是时候重估货币价值和整个汇率体系了。我认为最有可能的结果是我们将在新的一年里经历货币战争、货币崩盘和货币混乱,但货币乱相不会使经济复苏夭折,更不会是世界末日。

首先,我们必须承认,现代浮动汇率体系本身并没有过错。诚然,在浮动汇率体系下,复杂的风险因素和政策偏好特征令人们很难认清当前汇率大幅波动的内在逻辑。比如,美国身处金融危机的中心,但美元最初却出现了猛涨。

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