阿根廷对欧元区准逃兵发出的警告

布宜诺斯艾利斯——

近来,欧元区南北国家的关系日趋紧张,手续复杂及政治繁琐的资金转移成本加重了欧元危机,这使得一些人开始考虑过去从未想过的选项:或许只有一些国家的退出才能拯救欧元。实际上,有关退出欧元区的讨论日趋激烈,特别是一些南欧国家,它们急需重新获得竞争力。但首先我们先来看看退出欧元的真正代价。

采取一个坚挺的货币(例如欧元区)既不困难,也没什么特别。但在金融乱局中引人一个全新贬值的国家货币来代替欧元则是完全是另一回事情,绝大多数经济学家对此一无所知。回顾历史,和这个最为接近的恐怕是2002年的阿根廷退出锁定美元的汇率机制(连系汇率制度)自由浮动,阿根廷比索在头三个月内就贬值了300%。

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