Jon Krause

A vitória dos abutres

NOVA IORQUE – A recente decisão de um tribunal de recurso dos Estados Unidos ameaça agitar os mercados globais da dívida soberana. Pode até fazer com que os EUA deixem de ser vistos como um bom lugar para emitir a dívida soberana. No mínimo, torna inviáveis ​todas as reestruturações de dívidas no âmbito dos contratos de dívida standard. No processo, um princípio básico do capitalismo moderno - aquele que diz que, quando os devedores não podem pagar aos credores, é necessário um novo começo - foi derrubado.

O problema começou há doze anos, quando a Argentina não teve outra saída senão desvalorizar a sua moeda e não pagar a sua dívida. Sob o regime existente, o país caiu numa rápida espiral descendente, do género que agora se tornou familiar na Grécia e no resto da Europa. A taxa de desemprego foi subindo em flecha; e a austeridade, em vez de restaurar o equilíbrio financeiro, simplesmente exacerbou o declínio económico.

A desvalorização e a reestruturação da dívida funcionaram. Nos anos seguintes, até a crise financeira mundial eclodir em 2008, o crescimento anual do PIB da Argentina foi de 8% ou mais, uma das taxas mais rápidas do mundo.

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