Jon Krause

La vittoria degli avvoltoi

NEW YORK – La recente sentenza di un tribunale d'appello americano sta rischiando di sconvolgere i mercati del debito sovrano a livello globale a tal punto che gli Stati Uniti potrebbero non essere più visti come un contesto idoneo per la sua emissione. Una simile decisione rende quantomeno impraticabile qualunque ristrutturazione del debito nell'ambito dei contratti di debito standard, e ribalta completamente un principio basilare del capitalismo moderno – quando i debitori non riescono a rimborsare i creditori serve un nuovo inizio.

I problemi sono iniziati una decina di anni fa, quando l'Argentina si vide costretta a svalutare la propria moneta e a dichiarare lo stato di default sul proprio debito. Sotto il regime esistente, il paese aveva iniziato una rapida spirale discendente, del tipo ormai ben conosciuto in Grecia e in altre parti d'Europa. La disoccupazione era alle stelle e l'austerità, anziché ripristinare la stabilità fiscale, aveva finito per esacerbare la crisi economica.

La svalutazione e la ristrutturazione del debito, però, sortirono gli effetti sperati. Negli anni successivi, e fino allo scoppio della crisi finanziaria globale nel 2008, la crescita annua del Pil argentino era all'8% o superiore, uno dei tassi più rapidi del mondo.

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