Jon Krause

兀鹫的胜利

纽约—美国上诉法院的最新决定可能会让全球主权债务市场天翻地覆,甚至会导致美国不再被视为发行主权债务的理想之地。从最轻的角度说,它让所有根据标准债务契约进行的债务重组都变得不可行。在此过程中,当债务人无法偿还债权人时就需推倒重来这一现代资本主义的基本原则被颠覆了。

麻烦在十多年前就已经产生,当时阿根廷别无选择,只能贬值其货币和违约其债务。在现有制度下,阿根廷处于如今为希腊和欧洲其他国家所熟知的快速下降螺旋中。失业率飙升,紧缩,而不是重塑财政平衡,只能放大经济下降之势。

贬值和债务重组是有效的。在此后几年中,直到2008年金融危机爆发前,阿根廷的年GDP增长率都保持8%或以上,为世界增长最快的国家之一。

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