Ухабистый путь Аргентины

САНТЬЯГО. «Пристегните ремни безопасности, сейчас будет трясти», ‑ предупредил капитан из своей кабины. Мы вот-вот должны были войти в воздушное пространство Аргентины.

Инвесторы, стремящиеся делать бизнес в Аргентине, уже давно делают похожие предупреждения. Это страна, которую изучают ученые, когда они хотят понять суть финансовых кризисов. Самый крупный такой кризис в стране ‑ в 2001 году ‑ сломал местную банковскую систему и стал причиной дефолта аргентинского правительства по долгу. Экономика сократилась на ошеломляющие 18%, а уровень безработицы достиг своего максимума, превысив 22%.

После периода затишья, которое к настоящему времени длилось десятилетие, ужасающие экономические предостережения вернулись. Предсказания для мировой экономики становятся пессимистичными, а экономисты в зависимой от экспорта экономике Аргентины находят все больше причин для волнения. Itau, крупнейший банк Латинской Америки, предсказывает рост ВВП в Аргентине только 3,2% в следующем году ‑ резкое снижение с 6% в 2011 году.

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