Argentiniens Turbulenzen

SANTIAGO – „Bitte schnallen Sie sich an, wir haben einen turbulenten Flug vor uns“, warnte der Kapitän vom Cockpit aus. Wir näherten uns gerade dem argentinischen Luftraum.

Investoren, die in Argentinien Geschäfte machen wollen, vernehmen schon lange Zeit ähnliche Warnungen. Dieses Land ist das Studienobjekt von Wirtschaftsexperten, wenn sie Finanzkrisen verstehen wollen. Die letzte derartige Krise des Landes im Jahr 2001 ließ das lokale Bankensystem zusammenbrechen und verursachte die Zahlungsunfähigkeit des Staates. Die Wirtschaft schrumpfte um kolossale 18 Prozent und die Arbeitslosigkeit stieg zu Spitzenzeiten auf über 22 Prozent.

Nach einer nun ein Jahrzehnt andauernden ruhigen Phase, kehren die düsteren Warnungen zurück. Die Prognosen für die Weltwirtschaft trüben sich ein und Ökonomen im exportabhängigen Argentinien finden genügend Gründe zur Sorge. Die größte lateinamerikanische Bank, Itau, prognostiziert für Argentinien im nächsten Jahr ein BIP-Wachstum von lediglich 3,2 Prozent. Der entsprechende Wert für das Jahr 2011 betrug 6 Prozent.

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