Le vol mouvementé de l’Argentine

SANTIAGO – « Attachez vos ceintures, nous allons rencontrer une zone de turbulences », prévient le commandant de bord depuis le cockpit. Nous entrons dans l’espace aérien argentin.

Les investisseurs qui souhaitent faire des affaires en Argentine entendent depuis longtemps ce genre de mise en garde. C’est le pays étudié par les universitaires pour comprendre les crises financières. La crise la plus marquante, celle de 2001, a mis le système bancaire argentin à genoux et provoqué le défaut de paiement du gouvernement. L’économie a connu une contraction incroyable de 18 pour cent, et le taux de chômage s’est envolé à plus 22 pour cent.

Après une période de calme qui dure maintenant depuis une décennie, les signaux d’alerte se manifestent à nouveau. Les prévisions concernant l’économie mondiale sont pessimistes et les économistes sont inquiets de la situation de l’Argentine qui dépend fortement de ses exportations. Itau, la plus grande banque d’Amérique latine, prévoit une croissance du PIB argentin qui ne dépasse pas les 3,2 pour cent l’an prochain, en forte baisse après les 6 pour cent de 2011.

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