阿根廷的颠簸之旅

圣地亚哥——当我们的飞机即将进入阿根廷空域时,机长从驾驶室里传出指示:“请务必系好安全带,因为本段飞行会较为颠簸。”

那些想在阿根廷做生意的投资者们也会经常听到类似的警告。这是一个被学者们视作金融危机研究范本的国度。该国2001爆发的最严重金融危机摧毁了整个本地银行体系并引发政府债务违约。当时总体经济规模剧减了18%,而失业率则飙升到22%以上。

在经历了十年的平静之后,可怕的经济警报再度降临。全球经济的预测都倒向悲观,而阿根廷这个出口依赖国的经济学家们更是千头万绪。拉美规模最大的巴西银行预测阿根廷明年的GDP增长只有3.2%,大幅低于2011年的6%。

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