Argentina se zotavuje

V Argentině se pomalu dají vysledovat první známky hospodářského oživení. Pro mnoho lidí je to, co se tam dělo a co se tam děje teď, naprostá záhada. Zrušení "konvertibility", tj. systému fixního směnného kurzu, mělo vést je katastrofě - a vedlo. Produkce klesala a nezaměstnanost prudce stoupala. Kvůli obavám z nákladů a záchranným programům Mezinárodního měnového fondu (MMF) si Argentina držela svou měnovou radu ještě dlouho poté, co bylo všem jasné, že je tento systém neudržitelný. Když nakonec přišel kolaps, byl tím mohutnější, čím déle tato tvrdohlavost trvala.

Ovšem hlavním důvodem, proč se Argentina tak úporně držela systému, který nemohl fungovat, byl strach z hyperinflace. Když jsem se během svých návštěv v Buenos Aires ptal, proč Argentina s tímhle ekonomickým šílenstvím nepřestala, dostal jsem od všech stejnou odpověď: "Ano, když Brazílie uvolnila svoji měnu, inflace nijak zvlášť nevzrostla. Ale Brazílie je Brazílie, a tady je Argentina." Jako by Argentinci byli skoro hrdí na to, že nemají důvěru ve své instituce a jejich schopnost zvládat hospodářství bez pout konvertibility.

Tolik obávaná hyperinflace se zatím nezhmotnila. Jistě, přišla normální inflace, spojená se zvýšením importních cen, které vždycky přicházejí po významnějších devalvacích, ale zdá se, že nespouští spirálu zvyšování cen a že její míra slábne. Argentina se tak dost možná připojí k dlouhému seznamu zemí - kam patří například Brazílie, Jižní Korea, Rusko, Thajsko a Indonésie -, jež devalvaci zvládly bez nekontrolovatelné inflace.

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