People demonstrate against the government's negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Buenos Aires

Comments 4

阿根廷新危机的出路

May 28, 2018 Andrés Velasco

圣地亚哥——麻省理工学院已故经济学家鲁迪格·多恩布什曾在20世纪80年代告诫自己的学生这个世界上有富国、穷国、日本和阿根廷这四种国家。现在已经没有人再担心日本人用钱买走世界的控制权。但世界正再次对阿根廷感到忧心忡忡。

阿根廷货币刚刚遭受了另一场教科书式的攻击。4月24日，十年期美债收益率自2014年以来首次突破3%。同日，投资者开始大量抛售阿根廷比索并买入飙升的美元以寻求避险。为了在比索大幅贬值后稳定汇率，阿根廷不得不将利率提高到40%，同时寻求国际货币基金组织的帮助。

在经历了所有动荡后，市场平静了两周。现在是时候评估哪里出了问题，以及这个国家可以——而且必须——做什么来防止再次出现不稳定。

We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate.

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Get unlimited access to PS premium content, including in-depth commentaries, book reviews, exclusive interviews, On Point, the Big Picture, the PS Archive, and our annual year-ahead magazine.

Already have an account or want to create one? Log in

Andrés Velasco

Writing for PS since 2001
89 Commentaries

Andrés Velasco, a former presidential candidate and finance minister of Chile, is Dean of the School of Public Policy at the London School of Economics and Political Science. He is the author of numerous books and papers on international economics and development, and has served on the faculty at Harvard, Columbia, and New York Universities.

new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 4 in all 4 Comments on this article

Nicolas Cornejo May 29, 2018

So, not too many paragraphs in and we start with the lies... His "technocrats" are not well trained (I don't blame the people who trained them, though). And if we are talking about corruption... the president was absolved by a group of crooks in the 90s for contraband. Most members of cabinet have their fortunes in other countries, in order to avoid paying taxes. Some are accused of double dealing, since they favor with their measures companies where they used to work and from which they now hold shares. They are more crooked than Trump, and that is saying something...
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
ALPAY DİNÇER May 29, 2018

Do you have a projection/idea about what is going on with Turkey economy ?
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
kmitchel @monmouth.edu May 28, 2018

Why was it reasonable to cut export taxes when Macri by devaluing the currency cut all the domestic costs of production? The export sector gained competitiveness with the devaluation. Politically, why didn’t Macri at least secure something in exchange for the tax cuts that went entirely to wealthy exporters? Capital flight among rich Argentines was impressive in 2016 and 2017, as seen by the record number of Argentines traveling abroad. Uruguayan banks have been busy! “Pro-growth tax cuts” didn’t actually deliver, growth was tepid in 2017 given the decline in 2016 it was more of a rebound. And the outlook for 2018 with 40% interest rates isn’t promising. Where would the budget deficit be if export taxes hadn’t been touch? Also, I suspect inflation would be lower. I bet interest rates wouldn’t be 40%. Right? Also, I bet growth in 2018 and 2019 would be higher had the taxes remained. Plus, on the political side, leaving the taxes would have generated more domestic political capital, something Macri could use about now.
- Daniel Pauni Sep 4, 2018
  
  Now Macri is forced to correct his cuts in export taxes... after another crises. You was right
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.

http://prosyn.org/cKl1r1e/zh;

阿根廷新危机的出路

To continue reading, subscribe now.

New Comment

Email this piece to a friend

Contact us

Can Trump Make a Deal with China?

Will Germany Permit Joint European Security?

America First, Fallout Later

Business and Biodiversity

Iran’s 40 Years of Strife

Africa’s Digital Generation Gap

The AI Road to Serfdom?

What’s Left of the Populist Left?

Cookies and Privacy

Log in/Register