L'Argentine et l'inconvénient des monnaies à taux de change fixe

Depuis le milieu des années 90, les systèmes de taux de change qui fonctionnaient jusqu’alors correctement se sont écroulés les uns après les autres pratiquement sans aucun signe précurseur. Au Mexique, en Thaïlande, en Corée, en Indonésie, en Equateur, au Brésil et plus récemment en Turquie le même scénario s’est déroulé : les efforts déployés pour défendre des taux de change encrés à des devises étrangères (en général le dollar américain) se sont relevés vains face à la fuite soudaine des capitaux. Des taux d'intérêt astronomiques ont conduit à des dévaluations massives, amenant les entreprises à la faillite, laissant les banques de ces pays à l'état de ruine et entraînant parfois des troubles et une instabilité généralisés. On a parfois tenté expliquer cette situation en stigmatisant la trop grande variabilité des taux de change de ces pays. En effet, le taux de change étant modifiable -et donc révocable, la hausse des taux d'intérêt et les interventions continuelles sur le marché pour défendre leur monnaie ont alimenté les rumeurs de dévaluation. Et ce sont ces rumeurs qui l’ont en réalité entraînée en provoquant une ruée sur les dépôts bancaires. Cela permet de comprendre la vogue croissante des caisses d'émission (
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