Paul Lachine

Sommes-nous prêts pour un monde économique multipolaire ?

WASHINGTON, D.C. – A une époque où l’économie mondiale souffre d’une crise de confiance, de déséquilibres structurels et de médiocres perspectives de croissance, prévoir l’évolution de la situation sur dix ans nécessite une modélisation prudente et un peu plus que de la clairvoyance. Il faut adopter une approche sur plusieurs niveaux qui combine un sens de l’histoire avec une analyse posée des forces en présence, tel le déplacement des pôles de la croissance mondiale vers les pays émergents.

Ces prévisions impliquent également de comprendre la manière dont les économies avancées font face à ce déplacement et comment celui-ci transformera le système monétaire international. Après avoir étudié tous ces facteurs, nous sommes arrivés à la conclusion que l’économie mondiale est sur le point de vivre une transformation radicale – une transition vers un ordre économique mondial multipolaire.

Tout au long de l’histoire, les modèles de puissance économique ont été définis et redéfinis selon l’émergence et le déclin des pays les mieux équipés pour tirer la croissance et donner une impulsion à l’économie mondiale. La multipolarité, ou la présence de plus de deux pôles économiques dominants, a par le passé été une caractéristique de l’économie mondiale. Mais les pays en développement n’ont à aucun moment de l’histoire moderne été à l’avant-garde d’un système économie multipolaire.

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