¿Están Contados los Días del Dólar?

Hace un año el dólar abarcó el mundo de un solo paso, como un coloso. Ahora se encuentra humillado y el euro parece triunfador. ¿Se encuentra el dólar de salida como la moneda mundial sin rival en el renglón de las reservas y del comercio? ¿O es prematuro el "triunfalismo del euro"?

Esa cuestión preocupa no sólo a los especuladores que siguen la caída del dólar, sino a los empresarios ordinarios que se preguntan qué moneda utilizar cuando facturan importaciones o exportaciones. Sin duda, la posición que la moneda ocupa en el mundo del comercio por su papel en la facturación recibe muy poca atención. Actualmente, el dólar estadounidense sigue a la cabeza. La mayoría de las importaciones y exportaciones de Estados Unidos (EEUU) están denominadas en dólares y el dólar es usado extensivamente en el comercio que no involucra a EEUU.

Desde 1980, sin embargo, el dólar ha perdido terreno. Los estimados de la Comisión Europea indican que la participación del dólar en el comercio mundial cayó de 56% en 1980 a 52% en 1995 (el último año del que hay estadísticas disponibles). La participación del marco alemán permaneció relativamente sin cambio entre 1980 y 1995. El yen está muy atrás, pero tuvo el crecimiento relativo más alto, pues su participación en el comercio mundial creció a más del doble, de 2% en 1980 a 5% en 1995.

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