服务业是新制造业吗?

普林斯顿—最近,关于发展中世界增长的全球讨论发生了极大的变化。近几年来对快速赶超发达经济体的大肆宣传和兴奋不见了踪影。很少有严肃的分析师仍然相信亚洲国家所经历的波澜壮阔的经济趋同和大部分拉美和非洲国家所经历的不那么波澜壮阔的趋同会在未来几十年中继续发生。作为这一卓越时代的基础的低利率、高商品价格、快速全球化以及冷战后稳定不可能持续下去。

于是就产生了第二个认识:发展中国家需要新的增长模式。问题不仅在于它们需要摆脱对瞬息万变、常常让它们在冲击和危机面前不堪一击的资本流入和商品繁荣的依赖。更重要的是,历史上最笃定的致富之路——出口导向型工业化可能已经走到了尽头。

自工业革命依赖,制造业一直是快速经济增长的秘诀。赶超并最终超越英国的德国、美国和日本等国家无不是通过构建自己的制造业实现的。第二次世界大战后出现过两次快速经济趋同风潮:一是20世纪五六十年代的欧洲外围;二是20世纪60年代以来的东亚。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/vxqOhk4/zh;
  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.