服务业是新制造业吗?

普林斯顿—最近,关于发展中世界增长的全球讨论发生了极大的变化。近几年来对快速赶超发达经济体的大肆宣传和兴奋不见了踪影。很少有严肃的分析师仍然相信亚洲国家所经历的波澜壮阔的经济趋同和大部分拉美和非洲国家所经历的不那么波澜壮阔的趋同会在未来几十年中继续发生。作为这一卓越时代的基础的低利率、高商品价格、快速全球化以及冷战后稳定不可能持续下去。

于是就产生了第二个认识:发展中国家需要新的增长模式。问题不仅在于它们需要摆脱对瞬息万变、常常让它们在冲击和危机面前不堪一击的资本流入和商品繁荣的依赖。更重要的是,历史上最笃定的致富之路——出口导向型工业化可能已经走到了尽头。

自工业革命依赖,制造业一直是快速经济增长的秘诀。赶超并最终超越英国的德国、美国和日本等国家无不是通过构建自己的制造业实现的。第二次世界大战后出现过两次快速经济趋同风潮:一是20世纪五六十年代的欧洲外围;二是20世纪60年代以来的东亚。

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