Vladimir Putin Alexei Druzhinin/ZumaPress

¿Las sanciones están salvando a Rusia?

MOSCÚ – Las sanciones económicas impuestas a Rusia por Occidente en marzo de 2014 sin duda han resultado dolorosas. Pero hasta el momento no han logrado el objetivo de debilitar la posición del presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin. De hecho, pueden tener el efecto contrario y dejar a Rusia -y a su presidente- más fuerte que antes.

Se calcula que los países de la Unión Europea han perdido unos 100.000 millones de dólares en comercio con Rusia, lo cual afecta tanto a los productores de leche bávaros como a los exportadores industriales del este de Alemania. El PIB ruso, que creció modestamente en 2014, se contrajo un 4,6% en términos anuales en el segundo trimestre de este año. El rublo perdió más de la mitad de su valor frente al dólar en el segundo semestre del año pasado, alimentando la inflación, que se incrementó un 15,6% interanual en julio.

Sin embargo, la inflación hoy parece haber alcanzado su punto máximo y la apreciación del dólar estadounidense mitigó los efectos de la caída de los precios del petróleo y del gas, de manera que el valor de las reservas extranjeras de Rusia en realidad aumentó, alcanzando la cifra de 362.000 millones de dólares en junio (13% de los cuales están en oro). Y, a pesar del ajuste en Rusia, la popularidad de Putin está más alta que nunca.

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