民主党真的对美国经济更好吗?

坎布里奇—近几个月来,希拉里·克林顿反复声称,在民主党入主白宫时,美国经济表现显著更好。这话从推定民主党总统提名人口中说出来,可能显得有些像是政治伎俩。但真相是她的话绝对正确。

毫无疑问,总统只是决定经济的诸多因素之一,一些总统也显然比其他总统更加幸运。但这并不意味着克林顿的说法如一些媒体事实考据机构(包括获得普利策奖的PolitiFact)所言只是“半对”。民主党和共和党总统治下的经济表现区别是持久且显著的,并且差异显然要高于统计显著性阈值。

普林斯顿大学经济学家艾伦·布林德(Alan Blinder)和马克·沃森(Mark Watson)在 一项最新研究中确认了这一民主党红利。他们的研究起点是一项观察:二战以来(从杜鲁门到奥巴马),平均年GDP增长率在民主党执政时期为4.3%,而共和党执政时期为2.5%。在往上追溯,将胡佛和富兰克林·罗斯福也包括在内,那么差距还会更大。即使将总统任期的前三个月(或最初几个季度)的责任归于其前任,结果也是类似。

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