Egyptians hold candles at a vigil Mohamed El-Shahed/Getty Images

阿拉伯世界如何避免坠入深渊?

开罗——11月发生的一系列令人震惊的事件凸显了阿拉伯世界的糟糕局面。黎巴嫩总理在国外宣布辞职,但后来又宣布收回声明。一枚从也门发射的导弹射向沙特阿拉伯首都利雅得,沙特阿拉伯领导层展开了一场重大反腐运动并影响了数十位引人瞩目的人物。与此同时,埃及经历了记忆中最可怕的恐怖袭击,导致多达300余名平民死亡和受伤。从利比亚流出的据称是奴隶拍卖的录像凸显了利比亚政府全面崩溃后持续不断的混乱和动荡。

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针对伊斯兰国的军事斗争胜利以及加沙和西岸地区巴勒斯坦各派的和解并未成功缓和该地区的集体焦虑意识。上述积极的事态发展也未能激发人们的信心,让民众相信阿拉伯世界能够摆脱坠入悬崖的命运。叙利亚、黎巴嫩、伊拉克和也门遭受外国干预也已成为家常便饭。而有关身份政治和黎凡特边境问题的持续辩论仅仅标志着开始迎接未来严峻的挑战。

事实上,中东局势并不令人惊讶,因为近年来,不要说解决巴以问题,几乎没有哪个阿拉伯国家曾经试图解决利比亚、叙利亚和也门的持续冲突。在许多冲突中,阿拉伯人的影响力还不如外国人大。

历史上,从十字军东征到欧洲殖民主义,中东一直是无数次外国侵略的目标。这里的自然资源遭到贪婪的掠夺,而且在冷战期间曾经是代理战争的演武场。即使今天,阿拉伯领土仍在被占领当中。

但尽管可以找到诸多理由指责外国势力应当对该地区的危险状态负责,但责怪别人——甚或相互责怪——却什么问题也解决不了。毕竟,阿拉伯世界自身也存在许多问题,包括低效和无效治理、邪恶联盟和国家能力不发达。

任何决定不了自己未来的地区只会面临灾难,绝大部分地区民众都感到自己的权利被剥夺。尽管阿拉伯世界在传统上态度保守,但近70%的民众年龄都在35岁以下,而年轻人在绝大多数国家都沦为超高失业率的受害者。这不仅构成对资源的极大浪费,而且还成为造成严重、长期社会政治问题的源头。而且这还仅仅是该地区所面临的诸多国内挑战中的一个。

阿拉伯人必须掌控自己的未来计划,将自己和祖国的未来牢牢掌控在自己的手中。当然,他们应继续与外界保持接触,并强化与外界的战略关系和联盟。但他们必须学会不那么依赖外国人。

首先,各国政府需要发展各自国内的国家安全能力,以防范威胁和阻止霸权扩张。这反过来又会增强其政治影响力,并赋予他们更多的外交手段来解决地区问题和防止军事冲突。

此外,阿拉伯人必须捍卫自己的民族身份。中东地区的民族国家体系仍有待完善,但却远远胜过有可能进一步威胁地区稳定的宗教或种族派别主义。为避免出现这样的结果,该地区现有的民族国家将需要强有力的机构来提供社会包容和有效治理。不幸的是,绝大部分阿拉伯国家机构根本不具备完成任务的能力。

展望未来,阿拉伯人应当认识到防止外国干预和维护国家利益的最佳途径是推行国内改革。过去几年来,阿拉伯民众的觉醒体现了中立的中产阶级对变革的渴求。机会主义政党竭尽全力想从局势突变所造成的动荡环境中获益。但这却无法改变这样一个事实,那就是这些运动是长期治理不善所激起的反弹,民众借此表达对阿拉伯领袖未能推进渐进式改革所引发的愤怒。

阿拉伯人还需要制定更多经济、政治和安全方案,以此来适应不断变化的环境。现在的世界格局不再是两极模式或欧洲中心。事实上,正在接受技术、经济和社会快速变化考验的不仅限于威斯特伐利亚国家体系本身,而且还包括战后建立的地缘政治模式。

最后,阿拉伯世界必须直面地区霸权和非法占领阿拉伯领土的问题。当前问题的解决必须尊重人们对国家和主权的期待,同时又不仅仅停留在缓解短期困难的技术和交易性方式。归根结底,任何无法保护基本权利的政策都无法成功落实。

无论是单独还是作为一个群体,阿拉伯国家都需要制定一套完整的战略来应对今后几年威胁其主权和安全利益的与生死存亡息息相关的国外和国内威胁。阿拉伯领袖是时候描绘未来阿拉伯国家关系的愿景,并制定计划与非阿拉伯邻国合作迎接区域挑战和机会。最后,但同样重要的是,阿拉伯领袖必须向外界表明他们如何为国内民众提供更好的国内治理。

如果阿拉伯世界想保留对自己未来的发言权,就不能对现状沾沾自喜。阿拉伯世界的领导人和民众必须现在就着手进行计划的制定工作。

翻译:Xu Binbin

http://prosyn.org/CXq71Zq/zh;

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