Politics

كيف يتجنب العالَم العربي السقوط في الهاوية؟

Nov 30, 2017 Nabil Fahmy

القاهرة ــ كشفت سلسلة من الأحداث المروعة التي شهدها نوفمبر/تشرين الثاني عن الحال المزرية التي انتهى إليها العالَم العربي. فقد أعلن رئيس الوزراء اللبناني استقالته من خارج لبنان، ولكنه تراجع عن تصريحه في وقت لاحق. كما أُطلِق صاروخ من اليمن باتجاه الرياض، عاصمة المملكة العربية السعودية. ونفذت القيادة السعودية حملة كبرى لمكافحة الفساد والتي أثرت على عشرات الشخصيات البارزة. وفي الوقت نفسه، شهدت مِصر أسوأ هجوم إرهابي في الذاكرة الحية، والذي أسفر عن مقتل أكثر من 300 مدني فضلا عن عشرات المصابين. وأكَّدَت مقاطع الفيديو لمزادات بيع العبيد المزعومة في ليبيا على الفوضى المستمرة هناك وسط انهيار كامل للدولة الليبية.

لم تفعل الانتصارات العسكرية ضد تنظيم الدولة الإسلامية والتقارب بين الفصائل الفلسطينية في غزة والضفة الغربية شيئا يُذكَر لتخفيف الشعور الجمعي بالقلق في المنطقة. ولم تُلهِم هذه التطورات الإيجابية الثقة في قدرة العالَم العربي على سحب نفسه على نحو أو آخر بعيدا عن حافة الهاوية. فقد أصبح التدخل الأجنبي ممارسة روتينية في سوريا ولبنان والعراق واليمن. وتأتي المناقشات الجارية حول سياسات الهوية والحدود في بلاد الشام كمقدمة لتحديات جوهرية بالغة الخطورة في المستقبل.

الواقع أن الوضع القائم في الشرق الأوسط الآن ليس مفاجئا. ففي السنوات الأخيرة، لم تُقدِم أي دولة عربية على قيادة أي محاولة لحل الصراعات الجارية في ليبيا وسوريا واليمن، ناهيك عن معالجة القضية الفلسطينية الإسرائيلية. وكان تأثير الأجانب على الكثير من هذه الصراعات أعظم كثيرا من تأثير العرب عليها.

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The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games
Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

Politics 9

The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

Shlomo Ben-Ami
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.
worries that Lebanon will become the next battlefield between the Middle East's Sunni and Shia powers.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 10 Comments on this article

Jonathan Engel Dec 3, 2017

Seems to me that the Arab World faces a huge challenge: an economic challenge, since those countries which do not have foreign revenues from energy products, have little in the way of industrial base (with the exception of tourism) to provide resources to their population. Unless and until the countries are viable economically, they will "breed themselves into oblivion". Egypt itself can cover only 30% of its needs for calories, and needs someone to pay for its flour and other cereal bills for 90 million people. The Italo-British deal to share Nile waters (for the benefit of British Egypt, and at the cost of Italian Abyssinia) is not going to hold long term, or even medium term.
Optimistic suggestions about the responsibility for the present situation are non useful, when the issues are existential.
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Henk Crop Dec 3, 2017

The author concludes that Arabs must take charge of their own agenda and become the primary force defining their future. This message applies to any country or peopl I would say.
One development defining the future is the high birth rate of ca. 3,0 child per woman.
while 2,1 is needed for a stable population.
Where this leads to is for example visible in Egypt, birthrate 3,3 :
- 1947 population 19 million, 50 years later
- 2017 93 million, 35 years later
- 2050 150 million
It will be quite a challenge to offer the young people a future. Also watershortage may develop.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Henk Crop Dec 3, 2017

The author concludes that Arabs must take charge of their own agenda and become the primary force defining their future. This message applies to any country or peopl I would say.
One development defining the future is the high birth rate of ca. 3,0 child per woman.
while 2,1 is needed for a stable population.
Where this leads to is for example visible in Egypt, birthrate 3,3 :
- 1947 population 19 million, 50 years later
- 2017 93 million, 35 years later
- 2050 150 million
It will be quite a challenge to offer the young people a future. Also watershortage may develop.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
j. von Hettlingen Dec 3, 2017

Nabil Fahmy, as a former foreign minister of Egypt, can not be specific about which country he wants to criticise for fear of alienating its leadership. While he reveals "how the Arab world can avoid the abyss," he shuns words that describe the political reality there - autocracy, repression, poor human rights records. He insists "the Arab world has many homegrown problems... inefficient and ineffective governance, unholy alliances, and undeveloped national capacities." But he does not spell out the names of these problems - rampant corruption, nepotism, population surge, abject poverty and high unemployment etc. Instead he claims much of the woes have foreign invasion or intervention and other external factors to thank for.
The Arab world is made up of diverse states stretching from the Atlantic coast to Iraq. While a few have some of the world's greatest oil reserves, others are dirt-poor. The author seeks to generalise the problems and grievances with elusiveness. Nevertheless, people in the Arab world are subject to decades of injustice and deprivation. Moreover, population surge - with "almost 70%" of the population under 35 - water and food shortages etc. have bedevilled the region, which were the main causes of political uppheavals in the Middle East and north Africa in 2011.
The author urges Arabs to take matters into their own hands, shape their own future and not "remain complacent." It is important to stay in touch with "the outside world" and strengthen "strategic relationships and alliances," but they should reduce their reliance on others. The problem is that they often overreach themselves as a result of regional rivalries, knowing that world powers would rush in to resolve their crisis and sort out the mess for them.
Developing "their own national-security capacities" could be a double-edged sword. It strengthens their defence capabilities, while also allowing them to be hawkish, if they reject "diplomatic tools for addressing regional problems and preventing military conflicts." The Arab world has many of the world's oldest ethnic and religious minorities. The Sykes-Picot Agreement saw a century ago, a variety of states whose borders were generally drawn with little regard for ethnic, tribal, religious or linguistic considerations.
For decades the new states in the Arab world have been held together by the iron grip of a strongman or a powerful central government, to create a sense of national identity. But tribe and ethnicity come always before the fledgling national identity, allowing "religious or ethnic sectarianism... to destabilize the region." Iraq is a glaring example for the absence of national unity. There are no "strong institutions" and "efficient governance" that hold the country together, while power-sharing and social inclusion are just lip-service.
The author says, "lastly, the Arab world needs to confront regional hegemonic attitudes and the illegitimate occupation of Arab lands. Solutions to current problems must respect people’s aspirations for statehood and sovereignty, while going beyond tactical or transactional approaches that provide only short-term relief. Ultimately, any policy that fails to protect basic rights will not succeed." It is true, but the reality is less sanguine, because realpolitik prevails. World powers have no appetite for Kurdish independence and a partitition of Iraq or Syria, which is an occupied land. But Assad needs Iran and Russia to remain in power.
"Arab countries, individually and collectively, will need a fully formed strategy to confront existential foreign and domestic threats to their sovereignty and security in the coming years. It is high time for Arab leaders to outline a vision for the future of inter-Arab relations, and a plan for engaging with their non-Arab neighbors on regional opportunities and challenges. Last but not least, Arab leaders must also explain how they will provide better domestic governance for their people."
That Iran is also a thorny issue for an Egyptian, shows how much Saudi influcence dominates the region. Qatar has learned a lesson the hard way for falling out with Saudi Arabia, due to its cooperation with Iran, whose growing clout in the Arab world is the cause of an "unholy" alliance between two former arch enemies - Saudi Arabia and Israel.
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P. Kamath Dec 2, 2017

Practice and permit without fear , the freedom of speech. Ask the question,"what went wrong?". That is the first step all Arabs and other Muslim nations should ask. Then things will begin to change! But, be patient, it will take few generations to see its effect! Inshallah!
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sherif.eldiwany1 Dec 2, 2017

No argument can counter this proposition. The question is how? What is the path to slef reform of regions leaders prioritize political stability over political reform.
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Prashant Kotak Dec 2, 2017

Nabil Fahmy: "How Can the Arab World Avoid the Abyss?"

Mephistophilis: "Why this is hell, nor am I out of it."
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spcordingley Dec 1, 2017

What? And none of the Arab world's problems have anything to do with Mohammed? Ok, if you say so...
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Tom Lang Nov 30, 2017

Great article, very insightful. I would push back to a degree with the idea of defending national identities. It depends on to what end this would lead us. Tribalism across the world urges humans to lump into groups. Nation-states can be as deadly as religious affiliation.

Critically, it is through the desire of pushing national interest that European and Western powers have torn this area of the world open. Much of the formation of the modern "Middle East" is directly in line from European power brokers seeking better slices of land to control after WWI, as I'm sure you know.

In a similar regard, an emphasis on nationhood could unite the people of these areas under one banner to help claim true ownership for their communities. But it would also risk nationalistic vigor that is dangerously surfacing again in Western countries (Trump, NF in France, etc).

I'm not sure the proper path, and I'm all for self-determination on the part of the people. But it is a balance. As you say, domestic reform is a bulwark for building a better livelihood for the people. I just hope that somehow the people of this area can avoid some of the horrible mistakes Europeans and Western nations fell into, and still perpetrate to varying degrees.
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Bernhard Kopp Nov 30, 2017

From the Crusaders in the 11th century to Sykces-Picot some 100 years ago, other are primarily responsible for any Arab plight. In Morocco it may be this, in Algeria it may be that, and in Egypt and on the Arab peninsula it is probably something else. Centuries of state and political science books are available to use for any society. But, the capacity to organize a society must come from within. Just do it !
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