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Por qué los economistas no vieron venir la primavera árabe

LONDRES – El sexto aniversario de los levantamientos de la Primavera Árabe este año pasaron inadvertidos. A diferencia de los años anteriores, no hubo ningún torrente de comentarios sobre los tumultuosos eventos que sacudieron al mundo árabe y parecían prometer una transformación de su política. 

Por supuesto, la novedad se va desvaneciendo con el tiempo. Pero el interés menguante por los levantamientos árabes refleja un cambio más profundo: la esperanza de sistemas políticos nuevos y más representativos ha dado lugar a la desesperación, en tanto las revoluciones expectantes se han convertido en contrarrevolución, guerra civil, estados fallidos y un extremismo religioso cada vez más intenso.

Sin embargo, por más ingratos que puedan haber sido los resultados hasta ahora, debemos seguir centrándonos en los levantamientos de la Primavera Árabe, para descubrir sus causas de origen. Como cualquier acontecimiento emblemático, plantearon cuestiones nuevas y difíciles. Y una de las más importantes es por qué los economistas no lograron anticipar el malestar.

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