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为什么经济学家没有预见到阿拉伯之春

伦敦—今年是阿拉伯之春起义六周年,但是这个日子静悄悄地过去了,基本没有引起关注。与此前几年不同,没人评论这些震撼了阿拉伯世界、并似乎曾经给它带来变革憧憬的事件。

当然,新鲜劲儿总是会随时间而消失。但对阿拉伯起义的兴趣的消退反映了一个更深层次的变化:对新的、更具代议制性质的政治制度的希望不再,而随着预期中的革命演变成反革命、内战、国家失败和日益恶化的宗教极端主义,取而代之的是绝望。

但是,尽管到目前为止的结果令人无比失望,我们仍然必须关注阿拉伯之春起义,以发掘它们的根源。与一切标志性事件一样,它们带来了新的难题。其中最重要的问题之一是为何经济学家没有预见到这场动乱。

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