flowers growing near mosque Poritsky via Flickr

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Pasca Arab Spring

CAMBRIDGE – Lima tahun setelah pemberontakan Arab Spring dimulai, Mesir, Yordania, Maroko, dan Tunisia telah mencapai tingkat stabilitas politis yang memadai. Akan tetapi pertumbuhan ekonomi masih setengah hati dan perkiraan pesimis IMF (Dana Moneter Internasional) menyatakan laju pertumbuhan tidak akan melebihi 1,5% per kapita tahun ini. Mengingat besarnya potensi catch-up dan tingginya jumlah tenaga kerja muda, kondisi ini patut dipertanyakan. 

Salah satu penjelasan termudah adalah, meskipun terjadi kemajuan yang signifikan dalam pembentukan pemerintahan yang stabil, negara-negara tersebut masih memiliki risiko politik yang menakut-nakuti investor swasta. Tetapi jumlah investasi sebelum pemberontakan terjadi di tahun 2011 juga biasa-biasa saja dan saat itu risiko sudah tinggi. Pasti ada penjelasan lain.

Mempelajari riwayat ekonomi terkini di negara-negara tersebut akan memberikan pemahaman tentang permasalahan yang ada. Perekonomian pasar yang relatif baru di Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara, muncul setelah tahun 1980an, ketika model pertumbuhan ekonomi yang bersifat state-directed jatuh akibat tidak adanya efisiensi (dan utang negara sebagai konsekuensinya). Namun, berbeda dengan Amerika Latin atau Eropa Timur, negara-negara Arab meliberalisasi perekonomiannya tanpa meliberalisasi politiknya. Kelompok autokrat yang disokong dunia Barat masih berkuasa dengan kuat.

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