flowers growing near mosque Poritsky via Flickr

阿拉伯之春后的经济增长

坎布里奇—阿拉伯之春起义已经五年,埃及、约旦、摩洛哥和突尼斯都实现了相当程度的政治稳定。但经济增长依然不如人意,国际货币基金组织(IMF)的今年预期人均GDP增长也不超过1.5%。该地区赶超潜力巨大,也有大量年轻劳动力,你一定很奇怪为何会如此。

一个显而易见的解释是,尽管在构建稳定政府方面取得了巨大进展,但这些国家仍然饱受让私人投资者望而却步的政治风险的影响。但2011年之前这些风险便已经很高,私人投资也相当平庸。必定还有其他解释。

看看这些国家的经济史,我们可以获得关于这个问题的洞见。市场经济对中东和北非来说是一件相对较新的事物,直到20实际80年代国家主导的经济增长因为效率低下(以及由此产生的债务)而垮台后才出现。但是,和拉丁美洲或东欧不同,阿拉伯国家只自由化了经济,而没有自由化政治。在西方力量的支持下,独裁根深蒂固。

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