Mythes et réalités du monde arabe

WASHINGTON, DC – De l’éviction de Hosni Mubarak en Egypte, un Etat que tout le monde s’accordait à voir, il y a encore peu, comme l’un des plus stables de la région, au refus du colonel Mouammar Kadhafi de lâcher prise en Libye, il est difficile de voir quelle sera l’issue du mouvement insurrectionnel qui gagne le monde arabe. La contestation a déjà renversé les gouvernements de Tunisie et d’Egypte, et place les autres pays arabes face à une généralisation du mécontentement.

Ces événements ont créé la surprise, aussi bien dans la région que partout ailleurs, et les théories ayant cours sur le monde arabe se sont vidées, pour cinq d’entre elles au moins, de toute substance.

Les Arabes ne descendent pas dans la rue. Avant que les Egyptiens et les Tunisiens n’entament leurs manifestations, beaucoup de gens affirmaient qu’il n’y avait pas de véritable urgence à réformer et que ceux qui appelaient au changement ne savaient pas saisir l’état d’esprit du peuple – les choses n’étaient pas aussi graves que ce qu’en disaient les dissidents. Cette approche a conduit les gouvernements à l’idée que les Arabes ne se mobiliseraient jamais en nombre pour exiger le changement. Dans chacun des pays, on considérait les réformes immédiates comme préjudiciables à l’intérêt national.

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