Арабские отцы и дети

Проблема преемственности в арабских светских республиках выдвигает на передний план их трудности при переходе к постреволюционной фазе, поскольку преемственность в режимах, которые не смогли создать прочные учреждения, всегда рискует вызвать системный кризис. В то время, как решению некоторых в пользу династической преемственности, возможно, не хватает демократии, оно не всецело лишено достоинств. Вероятно, это выбор в пользу экономической модернизации, прекращения политики конфликтов и положительных политических перемен в дальнейшем будущем.

Годы репрессивного авторитаризма при поддержке Запада пресекали в корне любой потенциальный рост либеральной альтернативы действующим арабским режимам и превращали любой резкий шаг к свободным выборам в опасное упражнение в Исламской демократии. Демократия, которая создает правительства во главе с Хамасом, Хезболлой или Мусульманским Братством, неизбежно должна быть антизападной и должна противостоять "мирному процессу" с Израилем, инициированному Америкой.

Сирия уже пыталась обеспечить непрерывность режима через квазимонархическую наследственную преемственность с переходом власти от Хафеза аль-Ассада к его сыну Башару. Есть признаки, что Египет может последовать этому примеру с передачей власти сыну Хусни Мубарака, Гамалю. Подобным образом, преемником ливийского Муаммара Каддафи может стать его сын Сейф аль Ислам. Будучи продуктами революционных военных переворотов, эти светские националистические режимы не смогли создать настоящую народную законность и вынуждены были вернуться к династической преемственности, практикуемой теми режимами, которые они свергли.

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