Pères et fils arabes

Dans les républiques laïques arabes, les problèmes de succession des dirigeants témoigne des difficultés de la transition vers une phase post-révolutionnaire. En effet, la succession dans les régimes qui ne parviennent pas à ériger des institutions solides présente toujours un risque de crise systémique. Si l’esprit démocratique fait probablement défaut aux partisans de la succession dynastique, ces derniers ne déméritent pas totalement. Il s'agit sans doute du choix de la modernisation économique, de la fin de la politique de conflit et des progrès politiques.

Les années d'autoritarisme répressif soutenu par l'Occident ont étouffé dans l'oeuf toute éventuelle alternative libérale aux régimes arabes actuels. De plus, elles ont fait des efforts abrupts d’élections libres un exercice dangereux de démocratie islamique, étant donné que la démocratie à l’origine des gouvernements du Hamas, du Hezbollah ou des Frères musulmans ne peut être qu’anti-occidentale et opposée au « processus de paix » avec Israël proposé par les Américains.

La Syrie s’est efforcée d’assurer la continuité de son régime par la succession héréditaire quasi monarchique : Hafez el-Assad a cédé la place à son fils Bachar. Il semblerait que l'Égypte suive la même voie en mettant au pouvoir le fils de Hosni Moubarak, Gamal. De même, en Libye, Seif el Islam succédera sûrement à son père, Mouammar Kadhafi. Nés de prises de pouvoir militaire révolutionnaire, ces régimes nationalistes laïcs dénués de véritable légitimité populaire ont dû revenir à la succession dynastique des régimes qu'ils avaient renversés.

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