阿拉伯的父亲和儿子们

阿拉伯世俗共和国的政权交接问题凸显了它们在转向后革命时代时所面临的困境,因为在未能建立强大制度的政体内进行的政权交接总是会引发体系的危机。尽管某些倾向在家族内部进行交接的决定也许缺乏民主,但是却并非完全没有优点。值得玩味的是,这样的选择有利于经济现代化、结束政治斗争以及进一步推进政治变革。

受到西方支持的专制政权多年来把任何可能会取代在位的阿拉伯政权的成长中的自由主义运动都扼杀在襁褓之中,并且任何突然推行的自由选举都演变成伊斯兰民主危险的实施。这样的民主产生了被哈马斯、真主党或穆斯林兄弟会所领导的政府,它们无可避免地会与西方对抗并且反对由美国所倡导的与以色列之间的“和平进程”。

叙利亚已经通过类似君主制的世袭继承来寻求确保政权的延续,哈菲兹·阿萨德把政权交给了他的儿子巴沙尔。有迹象显示埃及也会步其后尘,穆巴拉克的儿子贾迈尔将会继位。同样地,利比亚的卡扎菲可能也会让他的儿子赛费尔·伊斯兰接班。作为革命军事政变的产物,这些世俗民族主义政权没能产生大众合法性,而是不得不退回到被他们所推翻的政权所实行的世袭继承中来。

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