阿拉伯的父亲和儿子们

阿拉伯世俗共和国的政权交接问题凸显了它们在转向后革命时代时所面临的困境,因为在未能建立强大制度的政体内进行的政权交接总是会引发体系的危机。尽管某些倾向在家族内部进行交接的决定也许缺乏民主,但是却并非完全没有优点。值得玩味的是,这样的选择有利于经济现代化、结束政治斗争以及进一步推进政治变革。

受到西方支持的专制政权多年来把任何可能会取代在位的阿拉伯政权的成长中的自由主义运动都扼杀在襁褓之中,并且任何突然推行的自由选举都演变成伊斯兰民主危险的实施。这样的民主产生了被哈马斯、真主党或穆斯林兄弟会所领导的政府,它们无可避免地会与西方对抗并且反对由美国所倡导的与以色列之间的“和平进程”。

叙利亚已经通过类似君主制的世袭继承来寻求确保政权的延续,哈菲兹·阿萨德把政权交给了他的儿子巴沙尔。有迹象显示埃及也会步其后尘,穆巴拉克的儿子贾迈尔将会继位。同样地,利比亚的卡扎菲可能也会让他的儿子赛费尔·伊斯兰接班。作为革命军事政变的产物,这些世俗民族主义政权没能产生大众合法性,而是不得不退回到被他们所推翻的政权所实行的世袭继承中来。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/Hijau9k/zh;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now