阿拉伯的父与子

1999-2000年,约旦、摩洛哥、巴林和叙利亚的领导人在短时间内相继去世,开始了一场世代的交替,而亚瑟·阿拉法特和阿联酋长期以来的领导人谢赫·宰德之死正是这场交替的延续。整个中东的人口比世界平均水平年轻,但他们的政治领导人年龄却高于世界平均水平。这种一代精英被下一代逐渐代替的过程可能是判断阿拉伯世界的改革是否有效的关键因素之一。

目前,这个地区的社会政治地图上有四代政治领导人共存。逐渐离任的一代领导人——即阿拉法特、侯赛因国王或哈菲兹·阿萨德、法德国王和穆巴拉克总统一代——出生于1935年以前,从20世纪70年代以来就决定着中东的事务。

这一代领导人在去殖民化的时期成年,并开始职业生涯。他们是在加麦尔·阿卜杜勒·纳赛的泛阿拉伯民族主义教育下长大的。对他们来说,最重要的政治事件是1967年阿以战争中阿拉伯的失利。这一代人寻求强有力的、能与以色列达到力量平衡的阿拉伯领袖。他们还相信——或至少幻想过——各种形式的社会主义和国家社会主义,民主和民权在他们看来并非首要问题。

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