Wann kommt die nächste Schuldenwelle?

Jan 31, 2020 Kaushik Basu

NEW YORK – In den letzten zehn Jahren wurden in der Weltwirtschaft immer mehr Schulden angehäuft. Ihre Höhe beträgt jetzt 230% des weltweiten BIP. Und die letzten drei Schuldenwellen verursachten in aller Welt massive wirtschaftliche Abschwünge.

Die erste von ihnen fand in den frühen 1980ern statt. Nach einem Jahrzehnt niedriger Kreditkosten, die es den Regierungen ermöglichten, ihre Bilanzen erheblich auszuweiten, stiegen die Zinsen und machten den Schuldendienst immer teurer. Als erstes brach Mexiko zusammen und informierte 1982 die Regierung der Vereinigten Staaten und den Internationalen Währungsfonds über seine Zahlungsunfähigkeit. Dies führte zu einem Dominoeffekt: Sechzehn lateinamerikanische Länder und elf Entwicklungsländer außerhalb der Region mussten die Laufzeiten ihrer Kredite verlängern.

In den 1990ern waren die Zinsen erneut niedrig, und die globale Verschuldung ging erneut durch die Decke. Der Crash kam 1997, als die schnell wachsenden, aber finanziell anfälligen ostasiatischen Volkswirtschaften – wie Indonesien, Malaysia, Südkorea und Thailand – scharfe Wachstumseinbußen und fallende Wechselkurse in Kauf nehmen mussten. Die Folgen davon waren weltweit spürbar.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 13 in all 13 Comments on this article

vivek iyer Feb 2, 2020

Basu is being very silly. In the story of Shibram, Gobar is left with the bad debt. Harsha isn't going to give it to him because it is now clear that Shibram is not credit worthy. There is a 'wealth effect'. Gobar has to tighten his belt. Harsha does not. As for Shibram, he is shut out of credit markets.

A 'debt tsunami' may wipe out some arbitrageurs and 'shadow banks' and this could constitute a monetary shock. But unless there is a net wealth effect, recovery should be quick. In the current global climate, creditor nations have to take a hair cut. Debtor nations have a shake out- India needs a very thorough one to free up productive assets- and that can be quite salutary.

More importantly, countries like India and the UK and so forth must adjust to higher real interest rates and lower real exchange rates because Uncertainty has increased and Governments need to smarten up.

Debt crises are good if debt holders get a kicking and thus become more prudent. Pretending the thing is a morality play is like so Nineteen Seventies.
- Robert Wolff Feb 20, 2020
  
  One thing you can be sure of is that the Wealthy who own assets in 'Public' companies listed on stock market exchanges worldwide, once interest rates spike and highly leveraged debt becomes immensely more expensive and causes corporate profits/values to fall based on the overwhelming cost of their leveraged capital, will dump them before that happens. It will be a race condition among the Wealthy who can sell first, to avoid the inevitable losses.
  
  The Wealthy will end up with enough cash to last them through the next recession/depression, and those that live week-to-week on their salaries will find themselves without the means to exist.
  
  That's Capitalism, always was, and always will be.
  
  When that happens in America (imminent over next four years) again, Socialism will be the only solution. The World Bank, the Fed, the UN, the International Banking Executives are all reporting this fact.
  
  You will not survive this advent if you are not currently rich and have the stock market savvy to survive, unless Socialism takes political power in America.
  
  Bernie Sanders is nothing more nor less than the Prophet of this inevitability. As my Millennial Son tells me, sooner or later it has to happen. The past is the proof of this maxim. Nothing less than a preventative radical change from past socio-political norms can avoid it in America.
  
  The next recession in America will be the end of the popular American belief in Capitalism, which is already at 25% popularity among Millenials after their experience of the Great Recession.
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Jacki Rawn Feb 2, 2020

Why not Shibram?
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Sergio BULIAN Feb 1, 2020

In my opinion, HP Minsky is better at explaining how crises are created.
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John Wilson Feb 1, 2020

The only way to solve a debt problem is growth but, in order to generate growth there has to be more debt!
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Phil 1 Feb 1, 2020

There is no problem with government debt unless they are borrowing in a foreign currency.
- John Wilson Feb 3, 2020
  
  Correct. Government debt is raised by bond issue (known as a gilt in the UK) created ex nihilo (out of nothing) and exchanged for private sector cash which it then spends back into the private sector. The bond becomes a private sector asset which receives (from the government’s tax revenue) a yield which is then spent back into the private sector economy from which, of course, the government raises its tax.
  If a government, with tax collected from the private sector, repaid, or reduced, its debt to the private sector, the said private sector would also and simultaneously be deprived of its asset - the bonds . . . and, of course, the yield!
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- Mirek Fatyga Feb 1, 2020
  
  really? Why don't we just abolish money altogether, then? One website, to everyone according to his need will suffice? You need somethings, you type in the number, the government sends you a check, as it is in your own currency, so there is no problem?
  - Phil 1 Feb 3, 2020
    
    Wow, overreact much? A government that only borrows in a currency it has the sole authority to create has no need to issue bonds, but since they all do anyways there is no amount of debt that is too much. Central banks have complete discretion on the yield the bonds pay (See qqe & yield control in Japan for instance) so the total amount of debt is irrelevant. The only relevant question is: 'Are there sufficient resources available for sale in the domestic currency for the desired purchase?'
    If yes no problem, if no you risk inflation or BOP issues.
    - Mirek Fatyga Feb 4, 2020
      
      I appreciate your sophistry here, an equivalent to a footnote in a global warming paper. There just could be some inflation, somewhere, some time, he says. I do remember my grandfather reminiscing about the times of Weimar Republic ...
      
      If the government debt is growing at 4.5% GDP per year, while the economy is growing at 2%, not even properly discounted for asset inflation, as is the case in the US today,you have a problem, my friend, sooner or later. You can't eat money, electronic or paper. This is the rule that really matters.
      - Phil 1 Feb 6, 2020
        
        Contrary to Milton Friedman inflation is almost never a monetary phenomenon. It's resource shortages; either genuine or induced by monopolized/oligopolized industries. If government debt is growing at 4.5% yet the government can decide to pay whatever interest it wants to on the bonds, why does it matter? Banks would stop purchasing them? So what, they aren't needed in the first place. The only relevant metric to judge government spending is inflation.
        
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Alan Luchetti Feb 1, 2020

Do these warnings address private debt or just govt debt?

Do they distinguish between govt debt denominated in that govt’s currency and debt denominated in foreign currency?

Do they distinguish between govt debt denominated in pegged currencies and that of unpegged fiat currency issuers with floating exchange rates?

Without addressing these questions, how does this article begin to make sense?
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