亚洲悖论

首尔—亚太经济合作(Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation,APEC)论坛的21个成员国占了全球GDP的54%和世界贸易的44%,因此本月APEC峰会的日程将引起全球关注。但所有人都兴趣盎然的唯一一个问题是中国国家主席习近平和日本首相安倍晋三是否会在场边举行会晤,如果会晤的话,是否会有缓解双边紧张态势的实质性讨论。

当然,这并不完全是毫无道理的,因为两国对于决定东亚的未来至关重要。事实上,APEC两大关键领导人是否会有交流的不确定性彰显出当今亚洲国际关系的严峻现实。所谓的“亚洲世纪”饱受一个悖论的困扰:深刻的经济相互依存完全不能减轻战略不信任。

最近,中日关系出现了恶化——这一趋势在日本从其私人所有者手中购买钓鱼岛(日本称尖阁列岛)以防止日本民族主义者控制该群岛后有所加剧——安倍出席峰会已经算得上是重大一步。安倍晋三和习近平的悔悟——两人上台后的第一次——将给人们带来更大的希望。

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