Respondiéndole a Irán

NUEVA YORK – Tenemos bastante conocimiento sobre el programa nuclear de Irán, y lo que sabemos no es alentador. Sabemos que Irán está enriqueciendo uranio en dos sitios -en parte a niveles del 20%, mucho más allá de lo que se precisa para fines civiles-. La Agencia Internacional de Energía Atómica también informa que Irán está llevando a cabo investigación para desarrollar diseños de cabezas de guerra nucleares. En resumen, los argumentos de los funcionarios iraníes de que su programa nuclear está únicamente destinado a la generación de energía o a la investigación médica carecen de toda verosimilitud.

Sin embargo, todavía es mucho lo que el mundo no sabe. Por ejemplo, no sabemos si Irán está llevando adelante actividades secretas en sitios desconocidos, o cuándo Irán podría desarrollar un arma nuclear cruda -las estimaciones oscilan entre varios meses y varios años-. Tampoco sabemos si el liderazgo dividido de Irán ha decidido desarrollar armas nucleares, o estuvo a punto de hacerlo, teniendo en cuenta que el país podría obtener muchos de los beneficios asociados con tener armas nucleares sin correr los riesgos o incurrir en los costos de realmente hacerlo.

Como sea, las actividades de Irán ponen al mundo frente a elecciones difíciles. Ninguna de ellas está exenta de costos o de riesgos. Es más, ni los costos ni los riesgos son posibles de calcular con precisión.

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