Ответ Ирану

НЬЮ-ЙОРК. Мы достаточно много знаем о ядерной программе Ирана, и то, что мы о ней знаем, не внушает оптимизма. Согласно сообщениям, Иран обогащает уран на двух объектах, причем на одном из них до уровня 20%, что далеко за пределами потребностей использования в гражданских целях. Международное агентство по атомной энергии также сообщает, что Иран осуществляет научные исследования по разработке ядерных боеголовок. В общем, заявлениям официальных представителей Ирана о том, что их ядерная программа направлена исключительно на выработку электроэнергии или медицинские исследования, сильно не хватает правдоподобия.

Тем не менее, есть еще многое, чего мир до сих пор не знает. Например, мы не знаем, занимается ли Иран какой-либо секретной деятельностью на необнаруженных объектах или когда Иран сможет разработать примитивное ядерное оружие, по оценкам от нескольких месяцев до нескольких лет. Мы также не знаем, решило ли разделенное руководство Ирана разрабатывать ядерное оружие или решит остановиться на чуть меньшем, рассчитывая на то, что страна могла бы получить многие преимущества стран, обладающих ядерным оружием, не создавая рисков и не неся реальных расходов на его изготовление.

Так или иначе, иранская деятельность входит в конфронтацию с остальным миром, толкая его на трудные выборы. Любой из них связан с расходами и  рисками. Более того, ни расходы, ни риски невозможно рассчитать с точностью.

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