Jak odpovědět Íránu

NEW YORK – O íránském jaderném programu už víme docela hodně a to co víme, není povzbudivé. Írán údajně obohacuje uran na dvou lokalitách – část z toho na úroveň 20%, což je mnohem více, než kolik je zapotřebí pro civilní účely. Mezinárodní agentura pro atomovou energii také uvádí, že Írán provádí výzkum zaměřený na vývoj konstrukce jaderných hlavic. Tvrzení íránských činitelů, že jejich jaderný program se soustředí výlučně na výrobu energie nebo lékařský výzkum, stručně řečeno postrádá veškerou důvěryhodnost.

Přesto stále existuje mnoho věcí, které svět neví. Například nevíme, zda Írán provádí tajné aktivity na dosud neodhalených místech nebo kdy by mohl vyvinout hrubou jadernou zbraň – odhady se pohybují od několika měsíců po několik let. Stejně tak nevíme, zda se rozpolcené íránské vedení rozhodlo jaderné zbraně opravdu vyvíjet, nebo se zastavit těsně před cílem a spoléhat na to, že země může získat mnoho výhod spojených s držením jaderných zbraní, aniž jí budou hrozit doprovodná rizika nebo aniž bude muset nést náklady na jejich skutečné držení.

Tak či onak, íránské aktivity stavějí svět před obtížná rozhodnutí. Žádné z nich není bez nákladů ani bez rizika. Náklady ani rizika navíc nelze přesně spočítat.

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