¿Otra vuelta en la montaña rusa para los tipos de cambio en 2009?

CAMBRIDGE – 2008 ha sido un año excepcionalmente turbulento para los tipos de cambio. El dólar estadounidense se disparó, el yen japonés se puso en órbita, el euro cayó por los suelos y la libra británica se estrelló dejando un cráter gigantesco. Las monedas de las economía emergentes resultaron muy golpeadas, al igual que las "monedas de los productos básico", como los dólares canadienses, australianos y neozelandeses y el rand sudafricano. En efecto, las monedas de todos los países que dependen significativamente de las exportaciones de productos básicos han sido afectadas.

¿Qué depara el año nuevo a los tipos de cambio?

Si bien la única apuesta segura es que la alta volatilidad continuará, nos encontramos en una encrucijada poco usual en la que las tendencias a corto y largo plazo parecen ser muy distintas. A corto plazo, el yen y el dólar se seguirán beneficiando de la fuga hacia la seguridad mientras los inversionistas atemorizados buscan dónde refugiarse. El yen y el dólar también se están reforzando a medida que los bancos centrales de otros lugares siguen recortando las tasas de interés casi hasta cero, territorio que ya ocupan los tipos oficiales de esas monedas.

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