Wechselkurse 2009 wieder auf Achterbahnfahrt?

CAMBRIDGE – Das Jahr 2008 war ein außergewöhnlich turbulentes Jahr für die Wechselkurse. Der US-Dollar hat einen Höhenflug erlebt, der japanische Yen hob ab wie eine Rakete, der Euro fiel zu Boden und das britische Pfund stürzte ab und hinterlässt einen riesigen Krater. Die Währungen der Schwellenländer gerieten ebenso schwer unter Druck wie die „Rohstoffwährungen“ -ampnbsp; kanadischer, australischer und neuseeländischer Dollar sowie der südafrikanische Rand. Insgesamt aber haben die Währungen sämtlicher Länder, die auf Rohstoffexporte angewiesen sind, gelitten.

Was wird nun also das neue Jahr hinsichtlich der Wechselkurse bringen?

Sicher ist nur fortgesetzte hohe Volatilität, aber wir sind an einem ungewöhnlichen Zeitpunkt angelangt, wo kurz- und langfristige Trends sehr unterschiedlich erscheinen. Kurzfristig werden der Yen und der Dollar weiterhin von der Flucht in die Sicherheit profitieren, nachdem Anleger in Panik nach einem sicheren Hafen suchen. Außerdem werden Yen und Dollar gestärkt, da die Zentralbanken auch anderswo die Zinssätze Richtung Null senken, was mit den Leitzinsen für Yen und Dollar schon geschehen ist.

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