Les Taux de Change repartis pour un tour de Montagnes Russes en 2009?

CAMBRIDGE – 2008: les taux de change ont vécu une année exceptionnellement chargée en rebondissements. Le dollar américain a grimpé en flèche, le yen japonais s’est mis en orbite, l’euro est tombé par terre et la livre anglaise a subi un crash qui a laissé un cratère géant. Les devises des économies émergentes se sont fait pilonner, de même que les monnaies-marchandise telles que les dollars canadien, australien, néo-zélandais et le rand sud-africain. Il est vrai que tout pays qui dépend principalement de l’exportation de ses produits de base a vu ses devises malmenées.

Alors les taux de change, que leur réserve l’année qui vient?

Si l'on ne risque pas de se tromper en pariant sur la persistance d’une forte volatilité, on se trouve néanmoins de façon atypique à la jonction de tendances court-terme et long-terme très différentes les unes des autres. A court terme, le yen et le dollar bénéficient d’une fuite vers la sécurité, les investisseurs pris de panique cherchant un endroit où s'abriter. Le yen et le dollar bénéficient aussi de la stimulation liée à la baisse des taux vers zéro des autres banques centrales, un territoire que la politique des taux d’intérêt du yen et du dollar occupe déjà.

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