Další jízda na toboganu pro měnové kurzy v roce 2009?

CAMBRIDGE – Rok 2008 byl pro měnové kurzy výjimečně bouřlivý. Americký dolar notně posílil, japonský jen vystoupal do raketových výšin, euro dopadlo na zem a britská libra se zřítila a zanechala za sebou obrovský kráter. Měny rozvíjejících se ekonomik byly stlačeny dolů stejně jako „komoditní měny“, jako jsou kanadský, australský a novozélandský dolar nebo jihoafrický rand. Utrpěly měny vampnbsp;podstatě všech zemí, které jsou silně závislé na vývozu komodit.

Co tedy nový rok přinese vampnbsp;oblasti měnových kurzů?

Jedinou jistotou bude přetrvávající vysoká volatilita. Jinak se nacházíme na nezvyklé křižovatce, kdy jsou krátkodobé a dlouhodobé trendy velmi protichůdné. Krátkodobě budou jen a dolar dál těžit zampnbsp;úprku do bezpečí, neboť zpanikaření investoři hledají vhodné útočiště. Jenu a dolaru pomáhá také skutečnost, že centrální banky jiných zemí nadále snižují úrokové sazby směrem kampnbsp;nule, což je oblast, kterou sazby jenu a dolaru okupují už dnes.

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